Friday, June 15, 2012

The Patriot's X-Factor

Bill Belichick is in his element.

Always being one step ahead of his peers in terms of inginuity, last season Belichick used his freakishly athletic tight ends in roles that his opposition had no answer for - and now that the rush is on to find a cure, he's ready to throw another twist into the carnage.

The NFL is a copy-cat league, and the Patriots have been trend-setters throughout Belichick's tenure.  Already recognized as a defensive genius, there is little doubt that he recognizes the limitations of defenses and it is no surprise that he would come up with an offense that neutralizes any defensive formation that a foe could throw at him - and now that the rest of the league has adopted a stance against that particular offense, he is prepared to counter thier moves with a few of his own.

The success of the Patriots' 2 tight end offense has inspired many coaches to try and copy the formation, but few of these teams have athletic freaks like Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez - thier size and speed making them versatile weapons that can line up just about anywhere. 

Gronkowski, of course, is a star - an overnight sensation armed with a shiny new contract and a combination of size, strength and speed that is a matchup nightmare for any defender, and his skill set requires a double team.  Problem is, there are also other weapons in the offense which makes a double team on Gronkowski a virtual impossibility.  Wes Welker is the best slot reciever in the league and newcomer Brandon Lloyd is a dangerous wideout with average speed, but with an ability to easily seperate from a defender and big, sticky hands that can snag a ball thrown anywhere in his vicinity.

A direct advantage of New England's complicated offensive scheme is that Belichick has been able to practice against it and study how to stop it, or at least slow it down. He has been able to employ these tactics in practice, which again puts him ahead of the game - and in the style of a mean counter puncher, he is prepared to come back at defenses with a new wrinkle - an X-Factor, if you will - that may indeed lay waste to many team's hopes.

Say hello to Aaron Hernandez.

So versatile that he can play virtually anywhere in the offense, Hernandez' skill set is what dictates to opposing defenses.  A classic H-Back, he can adeptly line up as an in-line Tight End, in the slot, split wide or as a Running Back, and is equally dangerous in any of these capacities...particularly when the Patriots are in their no-huddle mode.

Several teams seem readily able to employ what is termed as a "Big Nickle" defense which, in theory, would enable a defense to neutralize the Patriots' no-huddle, multi-dimensional passing attack while ensuring that the running game is accounted for. The key to this formation is having a safety that has the ball skills to cover a tight end or wide out over the top while having the bulk and lateral movement to help in run support.

Hernandez is the key to rendering this defensive scheme obsolete before it ever gets started, coupled with the talent on the outside and Tom Brady's mastery at running the no-huddle. 

Considering Gronkowski as the true Tight End, Welker in the slot and Lloyd and perhaps Gaffney spreading the field, Hernandez can be positioned to take advantage of any remaining mismatch.  Too fast for a linebacker, too big and strong for a corner and with the running style of a Bull Moose, he is the most dangerous player in this offense, and quite possibly the factor that will make the Patriots the toughest offense in the league to defend against.

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